Thursday, March 16, 2017

Investor secret No 1: How to deal with the next bear market! And Wall Street hates it!

Do you think you can play guitar and sing as well as Paul McCartney? Malcom Gladwell thinks it takes a bit of talent and at least 10,000 hours of jamming. So 7 hours a day and 220 working days per year that means 6.5 years of hard work. Well there are lots of financial experts who must have done that but who has out outperformed Warren Buffett? Are you goanna do that to achieve a blissful retirement?

You know how many have tried to figure out which company is the next Microsoft or Apple or…?   The beauty is that you really don’t have to be a stock market addict to achieve your financial goals and probably you can do it with plenty to spare. You don’t even need a lot of financial advice. What you do need is time, living below your means and… being stubborn like a Dutchman. Yeah, I know… If you aren’t Dutch, you aren’t much! Bad luck. Just like Warren said, his birth in North America was a lottery ticket win. So, if you are not Dutch like me, well… it was nice knowing you. 
Just Kidding. But a bit of strong headedness (is that English?) doesn’t hurt and I will show you why. Maybe that motivates you to build a bit of Canadian backbone. Oooh, eh was that not entirely political correct? Anyway, back to serious money matters.
So, I made this spreadsheet. Regular victims of this blog may be aware that I recommend to take profits and build cash now that the bull market is so advanced. But is that really the crux of making big money? Typically, I do have cash when approaching the peak of obvious screaming market tops such as during the high-tech bubble. But other crashes came out of nowhere. As so many tell us, market timing is impossible. My spreadsheet starts in 2016 during which we in Canada had an excellent stock market (close to 24% return or so). Then, I let the nightmare begin with a 30% crash in the first 6 month of 2017. So, after such a fall stocks are on sale and the scenario switches to buying stocks with a vengeance. But, gosh, the timing was off and in the 2nd half of 2017 the market loses another 5%. Thankfully this is not a very long bear market. By June 2018 the market has regained its 2016 highs. So it lost 35% and had, to get back to the same level, i.e. make on the remaining money a 53% return. The last half of 2018 is flat. The market returns 0. What is the result in January 2019?
Fig 1. Portion of spreadsheet showing calculations for 2016 to determine results of investment strategy Case I on net worth.

Well, I have 4 cases that run through this market scenario. All start with a $200,000 portfolio.  Case I with little cash (95,000 in the stock market, 100,000 in real estate and 5% in cash). Case 2 is the ‘high cash’ scenario. $65,000 in stocks, $100,000 in real estate and $35,000 in cash. Who will win by January 2019?  Case 3, is the Panic scenario. We starting out with the Case 1 but after the market crashes 30%, the investor sells all his stocks in a panic and stays out of it until January 2019; well after the market has recovered. LOOSER!  The last is Case 4 – PERFECTION. Just like Case 1 this investor stays low in cash but just before the 30% crash he sells all his stocks. Then he starts buying in January 2018 just when the market takes off. Nobody, except liars, do this consistently. But heck, who wants reality?
So stock investments earn an average 2.5% dividend and the real estate appreciates steadily at 3% per year and cashflows 3% of asset value in net rent. Not entirely realistic but close enough.  Oh, see those guys in Vancouver and Toronto laughing?  (Not for long I think). The spreadsheet with Case 1 is shown in figure 1 (sorry it’s a bit long and had to be chopped).  Anyway, who is looking at it closely anyway. The results are graphically displayed in figure 2 (including calculation errors, although I did my best to not make them).
This was a bit of a shocker for me. I thought being well positioned in cash would make me oodles of money. You can see on the graph what really happened.
Figure 2. Results of various strategies during the fictional bear market of 2017.

Case 1 – Low cash did do OK.  Net worth in January 2019: $264,965
Case 2 – High cash did better. Net worth in January 2019: $267,806 – Better but not a lot.
Case 3 – Panic. Oops   Net worth in January 2019: $214,826. Thanks a lot for real estate. Otherwise he would have lost close to 10% of his net worth. Now he is a bit head.
Case 3 – Unreal Perfection. Net worth in January 2019: 324,058.  Wow. But then nobody is perfect. So, if something is too good to be true, then…

The real lesson is: Never sell in a panic! Have always enough cash to live from and wait out the bad times. Other than perfection, a diversified portfolio will get you through. Even if you did not have the real estate.  Without the real estate you would have accumulated less cash during the downturn for reinvestment in stocks. Also, your net worth would have shown much larger ups and downs which is not good for your stomach and your imitation Dutch strong headedness. A less volatile net worth helps you to not sell in a panic.   Real estate and stocks are not well correlated. Although in 2008 both crashed simultaneously. The only thing that held up well and peaked in 2011 was gold. So, being diversified in asset classes such as stocks, real estate, precious metals and cash helps you combat panic attacks because it reduces volatility.
The real world is filled with numerous scenarios and cases. The investment game is different every day but some basic investment truths, not always in favor of Wall street or your broker, remain. Don’t panic and diversify. The rest is window dressing. I am becoming more and more a fan of Market Index ETFs. Maybe a topic for another post.






Thursday, March 9, 2017

Peak Oil and Gas is back

Oil and Gas exploration and exploitation, in particular of ‘unconventional reservoirs’ has been breathtaking over the last ten or so years. Multi-stage hydraulic fracturing or ‘fracking’ of horizontal wells has been truly revolutionary.  But now stories of depletion are going around lately in plays such as the Bakken of Montana. Now this may be premature but the fact is that the more things change, the more they stay the same. The oil and gas industry is somewhat ‘testosterone driven’ and currently that means, you produce more when you can frack bigger than your neighbors. Not much different from keeping up with the Joneses. But that is, as always with technology, about to change.

My company worked in many tight oil and gas plays and what you are not being told is that many of those ‘revolutionary plays’ have been producing for decades and that the old verticals often produced more over their lifespan than newer horizontals do. There is clearly an ‘end of the road’ scenario developing. Neither has the fracking revolution changed the fundamental laws of physics although many industry concepts have lost their meaning and are in dire need to be redefined. My company is in the forefront of this redefinition, although our financial means are very limited. But the key message is that there is a limit to how much these pools can deliver although the extend of their reserves is mind-blowing.
The question though is economics and the employment of capital to find new plays. So, there is a base price at which oil and gas are uneconomic to produce. Costs have been driven down and some companies can produce at amazingly low prices while still making some money. That is what we are seeing today with oil around $50 per barrel and gas at around $2.8 per mcf. But this is for drilling at rock bottom prices; prices undoubtedly will increase when the number of new drills increase. Then the breakeven price will increase as well.  This is for drilling out known and partially developed plays. But, as said, those existing plays will decrease in output over the coming years.  Individual wells decline typically 60 to 70% in the first year and ‘stabilize’ after a few years around a decline rate of 10 to 20%. To keep on producing at the same level year-in-year-out will require a staggering amount of new-drills.
To offset these costs, industry will try old and new techniques to extend the lives of their wells. I am sure that even the ‘tightest’ oil and gas pools will be revisited over the coming decade to see if fluids or gases can be injected after all to maintain reservoir pressure (the energy that moves the hydrocarbons first to the wellbore and then to the wellhead and pipelines). This will increase the breakeven price even further. Investment capital to finance innovations and exploration for new reserves has dried up to virtually nothing. This is the most expensive portion of oil patch operations and this requires a lot more brain power than just apply ever bigger fracks. Fracks that are now shown, when applied to the maximum, can indeed trigger earthquakes – mild ones but over the long term, who knows…  Speaking in terms of economics and liability, this will likely increase breakeven costs even further.

So will the price of brainpower, especially since we have lost and are about to lose so many baby boomer brains. Yes the young millennium brains bring in new views but also a lot of learning mistakes. From my experience, an experienced baby boomer can evaluate a play two or three times as fast as a millennium(er?) and... do it better. Yes the old brains will possibly deteriorate and the young ones will become more experienced but there is, due to past ‘industry busts’ an enormous age gap between those two generations of oil men and women. So I foresee over the coming 5 to 10 years society will pay dearly for all this in the form of higher oil and gas prices.  It is easy to predict oil and gas prices in straight, inflation adjusted, lines. But that is not reality. To a large degree, our recovery from 2008 financial crises has been financed by cheap energy prices and based on the testosterone of the ‘cowboys’ in the oil patch. Soon this will prove unsustainable and then brain power and expertise will be needed – by then a lot of this expertise has been discarded and lost in the pursuit of cheaper and cheaper drills. Let’s pray that by that time renewables and new energy sources can take up the slack, but somehow, I doubt that very much.
So yes, we will probably never run out of oil and gas, same as for coal – look how much is still in the ground. But there is an economic and practical limit that we can produce at. I would say, there is not only peak oil demand but much more likely there is peak oil supply and it is, once again, just around the corner.

Sunday, March 5, 2017

Another explanation for the populist vote

What is going on in this world?  Brexit, Trump, Marin Le Pen !  Racism; anger ; discontent ; xenophobic drivel!


Let me say it different. People are fed up being told how they should live!  That, I think, is the real issue. We live in a world where information is bombarded into our heads continuously from shouting advertisements when we wake up and turn on our laptop or tablet, to political parties and news papers that berate us on political correctness, worrying about everything from fugitives to SARS to cholesterol, climate change and an economy that approaches the end of the world. Top it off with a continuous flood of change and uncertainty. No wonder people are dreaming of a simpler live and to be left alone. Yesterday my car repair shop reminded me via a direct marketing call that I MUST come in for my 48,000km maintenance and that I better put on a set of new tires.
Then my dentist tells me that I HAVE to floss while I just read in the newspaper that flossing does not have an immediate health benefit. Cholesterol is good again and the consumption of butter is healthy… until next week. Blueberries are a great anti-oxidant and cinnamon is good for diabetics. Every minute there is a new ‘fact’ thrown at you about your physical or mental lifestyle and what you should do. People just are fed up with experts, smooth talking politicians, about hearing that our income hasn’t kept up with inflation and oodles of other nonsense.

It is nonsense! Truly, we never lived so good; if they only stopped telling us how miserable live and the economy is one might actually enjoy  life. But then, who would make money if nobody bought news papers and supported politicians?

This is what the public truly says when voting for Brexit or Trump: ‘Leave me alone. Stop harassing me over paying taxes, carbon BS and border taxes. I just want to live in peace and if you don’t do that then we will vote for alternatives just to get rid of you busybodies.’ In today's world, it is nearly impossible not to be deluged with advice about what you ought to do. Including personal finance.  So shut down your darn computer. Close down your web browser and enjoy life. Get off this blog!

To be honest, I don’t care whether you read this blog or not. I don’t make money of it, nor do I get a lot of feed back. For me it is kind of a financial diary and I shoot my ideas into cyberspace… a vacuous sounding board. Who knows, someone may benefit from it or considers me a looser, a ‘troll’, or whatever. So, close this blog and go enjoy your life without worrying about what I or anyone else tells you about what you should do.
Darn it, even the spell and grammar checker is trying to tell me what to do!  Wellllll EYE Donut Kiff eh Shittt!

Saturday, February 25, 2017

What does Buy & Hold mean?


Like any concept used in this world, and this seems in particular to be true for the world of investing, how a concept is understood and applied is often in the eyes of the beholder. So when talking ‘Buy & Hold’ to me that doesn’t mean that I never sell a stock once I buy it. Actually, if you read my last post you know that I recommend selling stocks to build up lots of cash because ‘the higher a market goes, the higher the risk’.  So, when do I sell a stock?

1.       A stock has gone up so much that it is taking up an unreasonable proportion of my portfolio. Lately, I have trimmed a lot of my bank holdings. The official term is ‘rebalancing my portfolio’.

2.       A stock has dropped from it’s recent high or it’s recent purchase by more than the allocated stop-loss price. Typically, 20-25% from a recent high or from the purchase price. However, in volatile sectors like gold mining I may use a stop-loss at 40 or 50% price drops. If you invest no more than 5% of your security portfolio in one stock and you lose 25% then your total portfolio loses around 1.2% If you add to that the idea of buying in tranches, i.e. when you start buying shares in a company just buy a little bit do not buy the full 5% in one fell swoop. So now, if you made a mistake and you put only 1% of your securities portfolio in a particular stock your loss is only 25% of 1% or 0.25% of your total securities portfolio value. If you are like me and have around 50% of your net worth invested in real estate, then your total net worth is down 0.125%.  You see that way you keep your losses to a minimum and if you have a big winner you let your profits ride – sometimes for years and you buy more and more of this now proven asset up to the max 5%.

3.       A stock is ‘dead money, i.e. it pays no or little dividends and more importantly the reasons you bought it are no longer there and the price hasn’t moved significantly for 1 or 2 years. These stocks I tend to sell especially when I see a downturn coming. After all, why live through the stock value fall and lose 20 or 30% in a downturn with little upside? Especially, If you can convert it into cash and use that cash to buy a more desirable asset during the anticipated down turn?  Makes sense?

So rarely do I truly ‘Buy & Hold’ for ever.  Having said that, some stocks like Brookfield Asset Management I have been holding literally for decades and I only sell a bit if it becomes too large a portion of my portfolio. This strategy of buy and hold makes we sleep very well at night. A large portion of my portfolio requires very little attention and this allows me to focus on trying to find new opportunities to invest in. I try them out and monitor them closely in the more active portion of my portfolio. Some people call this ‘play money’ but you know I don’t ‘play with money’. I am willing to invest in new companies and may have fun when proven right (30 to 50% of those investments don’t work out and are sold within a year or so) but it is for growing and optimizing my portfolio and I am certainly not very cavalier about losing even a small part of my nest egg. In the end, I may have to live off this money for decades to come and if immortality is possible, I may have to live off it forever. 😊

Thursday, February 16, 2017

The Crash of 2017 - How many self glorifying books will be sold afterwards?


Prepare for the next crash!

I have been saying that this is ‘one of the longest bull markets in history’ now for so long that it is becoming annoying.  So why not lose all caution and dump all your money in stocks?
Look at the graph below which I captured from the Globe and Mail website. It shows the S&P500 since 1978 up to the 2017 crash. What crash?  The one that is probably coming soon in the U.S. and will drag us along with it even though in Canada we basically had a TSX bear market in 2015. 

S&P500 from 1977 until today  - from Globe Investor

I have to refer to a 2011 post on this blog titled Bull-and-bear-market-analysis.html  to let you see what I am talking about. Remember 2008-2009? Remember all the hand-wringing about how slow the markets would recover?  Much slower than any other recovery in history?  All the headlines about the coming crash which would be worse than anything we have ever seen before?  Well what does the chart tell you?  Right: Poppycock! The market recovery from the 2009 lows was just as steep as that of previous crashes!   The next graph shows you the S&P with 10 and 50 week(?) moving averages.
S&P500 since 1977 with moving averages 
The maximum recorded percentage increase from bottom to peak recorded in the Bull and Bear market analysis post was 142%. Since the lows of 2009 we’re up close to 300%! If you listen to the pundits many don’t talk about a crash any longer and economic data in the U.S. show low unemployment rising wages and the Fed is talking about raising interest. The longer-term rates have been on the increase dramatically so the Fed runs a bit behind the facts. Remember Marty Zweig the legendary investor from Louis Rukeyser’s PBS‘ Wall Street Week’ in the 1980s?  He had the rule: Three subsequent rises in the Fed’s interest rate and a bear market is likely to follow.
I think we’re close to the peak in the U.S. You may say that is the U.S.  but Canada and Europe are not even close!  True but not entirely. Look below. Yes, you see? Europe underperformed both the U.S. and Canada. But these markets often follow similar patterns. Canada is also at an all-time high in spite of the commodity rout. Many Canadian financials are at very lofty prices as well. Example: the banks.  Guess what, in a U.S. crash Europe and Canada may not do as poorly as the U.S. but they will be dragged down as well. Certainly, short term.
 
Comparison of S&P, TSX60 (XIU) and Europe's IEV
What to do?
Look at the long-term chart and find back the infamous 1987 crash. What do you see? Virtually nothing. With a long enough a time horizon the crash meant nothing. But if you lived through October 1987 you probably woke up with a portfolio that overnight went down between 20 to 30%. What a great buying opportunity! Same for 2008-almost anything you bought between October 2008 and March 2009 went up by 300%. So long term the market returns 6 to 7% plus inflation annually. But you could spike those returns if you had cash to buy near the lows. Never forget that over the long term the impact on buying cheap is muted. So that is how you look at crashes and corrections -  they are buying opportunities. Suppose you only buy during lows and sell whenever the market peaks? Then you may miss out on many years of dividends and on reinvestment opportunities – cost-averaging would work well during such market stages. Probably you would have missed more profits than you can ever make up by buying only during lows and selling at peaks. It is, as they say, time in the markets that are an important contributor to profits as well. That is why you never sell ‘everything’ and since you never know which stock will do well and which one will do poorly you have to diversify.

We know a crash is coming – the higher the market the higher the risk as we always tell you! So, take profits in your U.S. portfolio and build up your cash.  Don’t buy a lot of new stock – not even in Europe. Wait for the crash and put your money in the most undervalued assets. Also, count on a big crash in overvalued Canadian Real Estate (I am talking Vancouver and Toronto). If the U.S. tanks oil prices will likely drop again (temporarily). But gold is a chaos hedge so consider it a currency and buy investments underlain by physical gold or buy bullion straight (on the rocks J); don’t buy investments underlain by gold derivatives . Silver may give you even more oompf! Gold and silver are forms of cash and hedge you against big falls in the U.S.  Same for the Canadian dollar. So, put 10% of your cash in Gold and/or silver maybe even up to 10% of your total stock and bond portfolio. During the crash, you will know when the bottom is near – your timing doesn’t have to be perfect – ‘Good enough’ is good enough. That is the time to use your cash to buy cheap. Always diversify there are nearly always assets that do better than others. Don’t panic because long term your stocks will do well and buying at the lows will only spike your returns over the short to intermediate term – there is no real reason that you would miss the opportunity so try not to be in a hurry when buying at the low. You can even wait a bit to confirm the start of a new uptrend but don’t get too fancy. Get ready for the Crash of 2017 (or whenever it may occur).  And... like with every crash before, I make the next prediction with confidence:  Many gurus will come out with self-glorifying books claiming they predicted the 2017 crash with confidence and accuracy. Don't believe a word. 

Sunday, January 1, 2017

2016 the year with a cup that is half full

If you believe the news media, 2016 was annulus horribulus or was it anus horribilis? You see, you don’t have to be Queen E to use such a phrase? But looking back on 2016 it was for me an excellent year and 2017 will hopefully be even better. This is what you may want to do as well: reviewing all the good stuff you achieved in 2016 and maybe review your life and realize that there is so much good to be grateful for

For me, 2016 started as a downer, but really an accelerated oil price down turn only led a to an excellent buying opportunity. And I learned, maybe a bit slowly, that in commodities you have to take profits. Commodities are NOT buy-and-hold,that is for banks and blue-chips. Look at ExonMobil during the oil price downturn!
From  the absolute peak in July 2014 until today it never fell much more than 25% and that while oil prices dropped from over $100 to $26! The stock has been in an uptrend from August 2015 up to now and will likely continue.  But XOM is the exception to the rule. Energy stocks tend to be very volatile. I had sold most of mine by 2015 and they represented a tiny portion of my portfolio 5-7% and that included the savings plan at my employer. So January 2016 was the bottom for oil and what followed was a great buying opportunity.
Gold came out of a multi-year bear market, especially when viewed in terms of US dollars. I bought between February to March but I forgot the lesson of taking profits (I am truly a slow learner). By June, I thought I was a genius and bought MORE. Well, that was not smart. I should have taken some profits, after-all, we’re in nearly the longest U.S. stock bull market in history and one should be prepared for a major downturn, i.e. another buying opportunity, not long from now. And I have done so most of the year but  not with commodities – so I gave a fair bit of my gold profits back in the 2nd half of 2016. Hmmm… so we have to wait a bit longer. Oh… patience… one of the most difficult virtues to  master.
The oil patch with it’s layoffs were grim… I wanted out my of employment which provided less and less fun.  I wanted to start, or better revive, my old consulting company Eucalyptus Consulting inc. Sorry we’re not public. In May there was the proper opportunity and together with some colleagues, Eucalyptus was re-opened. By September we had software, microscopes, computers and a renovated office in place.  The oil industry was grimmer than ever around us… there was truly blood in the streets of Calgary with so many companies teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. Try to get work as a consultant in such an environment… you can stand on your head and still nothing will happen. So we started a regional evaluation of no other play than the Montney and since we have nearly every tool I can think of, we are making great progress. By the time the downturn is over, we are experts in the Montney, a play by some referred to as Alberta’s Eagleford. Personally, I think the play differs significantly and that is where Eucalyptus may have a competitive edge (Eucalyptusconsulting.ca).
Really, starting a company in a downturn is not that different than buying shares at the bottom of a bear market. One is private equity, the other is public. So that is how I see all this. Eucalyptus is just part of my investment portfolio. So we made great headway. Real Estate in Alberta is down but there seems to be a silver lining, those same investors that were part of the booming Toronto and Vancouver real estate boom, start to realize how cheap Calgary real estate is. Yes, rents are depressed but real estate prices, except for the upper price ranges are not down a lot. My portfolio is not just in residential but as shown in the blog sidebar, includes part ownership in a Canmore hotel operation. Canmore real estate was hard hit by 2008-2010 but now it is benefiting from the low dollar and stay-at-home tourism. Many locals take the sensational landscapes of Alberta for granted. Now, with Hawaii and even Mexico becoming so expensive, they discover what an awesome area we live in. So Canmore has had one of it’s best years in a decade. I also own real estate in retirement housing and there the waiting lists haven’t declined. The only set back is that the NDP government feels that they can cut back on healthcare and let others carry the costs. A bit counter-intuitive. So are their ideas of imposing rent controls – a sure fire way to promote ghettoes. Calgary has not known ghettoes like those in many other North American cities but now government policies may cause this nastiness to come to our town. It seems as if Notley really wants to try every socialist policy that has failed in Ontario. But overall the diversification helped to have an OK real estate year.
The stock market in Canada was the best in years. Curiously, it were the market index ETFs that performed best while active managed portions of the portfolio under performed. This was in part due to the relative high cash levels and the set back, as discussed earlier, in Gold. I think that Gold will recover especially because of inflationary policies by Boy-wonder in Ottawa and Trump in the U.S.
 I see oil recover just like natural gas has. A normal winter with below average gas production has done wonders.  OPEC finally realizes their blunder – starting the oil-price war -  combined with the poor economics of developing oil plays in the rest of the world, this is resulting in a re-balancing of the oil markets. I think $60 oil is a given for 2017 and $70 is possible. That would result in an Alberta energy industry that is finally developing a healthy pair of legs: Oil AND Gas.
I think 2016 was the year of new opportunities, both privately and investment wise. I hope that 2017 will be even better for all of us. What did we learn? We learned to see the cup as half full rather than half empty!

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

'Doing nothing' is so difficult to do

Doing nothing is one of the most difficult things for an investor to do. A portfolio is like a garden. You have taken out the weeds (as much as you can); you have seeded your garden for the hot summer that is hopefully to come and, really, how can you protect your garden from an occasional hail storm? Somethings are just beyond your control.
Your portfolio is as diversified or concentrated as you want it; you have eliminated the bad performers; by taken some losses from past mistakes (yes we all make those) you have built up a tax cushion for future capital gains. You bought value stocks to enjoy the next leg-up in the commodities market and your long-time holdings are balanced so no individual holding exceeds 5%.  Now it is waiting for the investment world to unfold – hopefully most beneficial to you. You have also cash just in case that once-in-a-life-time opportunity knocks on your door.  There are always other investment ideas coming past you but should you switch holdings just because you have nothing else to do?
No. It is the time between seeding and harvest. It is difficult to sit on your hands, clipping bond coupons and receiving dividends. What else can you do?  You may get second thoughts; things take longer than you hoped for. Sometimes just sitting there waiting for things to come your way seems make time crawl at a snail’s pace. Your fingers itch; you want to do something; after all you are a person of action and decisions, although carefully thought out, are usually easy for you to make. But… right now anything you do is not really adding any value, except waiting for the market to take off. What if? No, you are waiting for the harvest; changing things now is running the risk to make matters worse instead of better. This is the time where somethings gnaw in your belly; why are things not happening? Did you make a mistake after all?  Is there something you overlooked?
Doing nothing is oh so difficult but probably the best thing to do in many cases. Investing is not about perfection; things have only to be more often right than wrong. But… but… just let your seedlings grow and above all; cut your losses and let your profits run. If there are no losses; be a man and do NOTHING! Really, for many of us this is soooooo difficult but when things are in place, good is typically good enough. If it isn’t broke don’t fix it… that only costs money.
Once things happen they often happen fast and like a world champion you have already thought over all the scenarios and how to react if they come to be. Waiting for the ‘New Year’ is typically one of those times that you should only review your portfolio and do nothing. Just spend time with your family; relax and enjoy the holidays.  I know, you feel you should not relax, but that is why we have year-end: to do nothing and enjoy with your loved ones those last days of the year. Nobody else is working! Why should you?
Merry Christmas and a Prosperous 2017.