Saturday, October 3, 2015

A look in the investment crystal ball: Introduction

Although we cannot predict the future, investors should have an idea about where the world is going. It is important to have investment scenarios that range from optimistic to outright doom – these prepare you for what to do when encountering the good, the bad and the …. J. These scenarios often revolve around your core outlook for the world.

Note, I don’t say just Canada because we need a wider view.  Harry S. Dent provided me with a view of demographics.  Jeff Rubin helped me about a view on oil and gas. I also use investment research groups such as Stansberry in the U.S. to develop my views and techniques. There are also Warren Buffett; Jeremy Siegel; David Dreman; Peter Thiel and many others. But in the end, I must have a view of my own, just as you should. Your view continuously changes as does the world. The future is definitely not cast in stone and there are so many aspects to take into account. It is hard to fathom an individual – no matter how bright – who can encompass all.  So we see the world from our personal point of view and we’re biasing our own future vision based on it.

That is what is investing all about:  to ensure we have the funds and means to make our goals in life real. Your goals probably will change – the only thing that is certain in this world is that things change! You may reach one or all of your goals, but then what?  You make new goals!  People say that the rich have never enough – that is not quite correct.  Rich and/or successful people (these are not exactly the same) reach goals and just like anyone else, they will have to find new challenges. Thus, one strives always for bigger and better.  If you stop doing so, your survival muscles atrophy and you may just as well die.  Extremely stated? Maybe but there is a lot of truth in that statement.

These days we see ever more uncertainty and noise, so where do I think we’re going? To answer that, I’ll try to create a series of posts each addressing one or two topics. I hope I won’t ramble too much but please, give me some rope…. J

  1.  What is investing – what am I? Buy and Hold, Diversified; Focused; Trader; Speculator; Accumulator; Seven income streams?
  2. Demographics and inflation
  3. GDP worldwide, debt and Inflation – Hoax, delusion or maybe even irrelevant?
  4. Energy
  5. Immortality
  6. Technology
  7. Star Trek – vision and future reality? What about Robert Heinlein?
From the topics you may gather than I am reading a fair bit. Yes, but in spurts – sometimes fiction and other times non-fiction.  It all helps me form a worldview. Should I include BNN and similar business programs or Home and Garden TV?  I love Netflix these days especially BBC style crime series. They all provide me with pieces of life’s puzzle – some more than others.  In fact, apart from reading and watching good TV series, the successful investor should like travel – it shows you how others live and helps you better understand where they are coming from. By the way, music is important too – it calms you during periods of investment panic and it lets you better appreciate the successes in your life. So investing helps you achieve your life goals but it also sets your lifestyle. Watching commercial TV channels such as CTV, ABS and CBC will quickly become tedious and as a successful investor you’ll be living with your eyes wide open (except for politics and petty local news). You may become a bit too money focused – that is where vacations help.  Anyway, I digress, next post is in the making.

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