Monday, March 26, 2018

Contrarian investing with blog data


I have written my blog “Canadian Diversified Investor" now for 8 years.  I never advertised, and I use it more as a financial diary where others get a peek into my delusional ideas which sometimes work out and sometimes not at all. I only write when I feel like it, but I think the minimum is once a month.  My all-time high for a blog post was 4563 views of Worrywarts - a semi humorous ditty on investor pessimism published in June 2012. My overall traffic goes up and down, roughly but not perfectly correlated (and with a lag) to the number of posts I released around that time. Recently, I have written a fair bit and so traffic is up. It was also up when the markets did quite well in 2014.  Strangely enough, most comments (not counting spam) I got on another ‘bestseller’ titled Real Estate in Calgary; quite boring but very profitable published in February 2014 with a very modest 208 views. They average post, over its life up-to-now has received 277 views. Strange all those comments on that real estate post (and also a lot of spam comments, which I don't publish).
These days, when I release a blog post, I have about 18 views after a week. Yet, a recent post on how I analyzed the purchase of a new coffee maker two weeks ago and which I thought to be amusing got to date only 8 views.  Over the years, I had, according to Google Analytics around 140,000 views. So not exactly a barn-burner. Two days ago, I released yet another post: “Get Ready for a stock market crash”. I must have done something wrong, because the views skyrocketed to over 80! I must have gone viral! I opened a new wine bottle to celebrate.
Nobody cares typically when I BS on my blog; but I must have hit a nerve. Can I use this as a sentiment indicator to make contrarian stock market predictions? Finally, a way to monetize my publishing efforts! When so many people are that afraid that they ‘en-masse’ read my musings about a potential stock market crash, then as a contrarian I should cheer and expect a raging bull market instead. Right?  I do notice, especially during these February-March 2018 corrections how many analysists and gurus have also turned bearish. Even the biggies, like Ray Dalio. Hmmm…. When the gurus are so down, maybe this bull market has longer to go than I initially thought.  Food for even more thoughts... painful; I am getting a headache.

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